I’m attending the AHIP health policy conference in Washington, DC this week and getting an earful about the elections and healthcare reform. Some impressions:
First up on the podium was Chris Matthews, TV commentator of Hardball fame. Matthews is a good speaker and captures the audience right away. He believes anyone of the three presidential candidates could take the election. Yes, there is still a path for Hillary to get the nomination but a lot depends on what happens today at the polls in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
To Matthews, America is in a “rut”. The people want change, they want deliverance. And doing nothing is definitely “out”. Obama is different, not your typical politician and he believes that this election is really going to be “transformative”, the likes of which we have not seen for quite a while. While he did not address health care reform in a specific way, Matthews argues that real political change only comes from brilliant, dramatic, unpredictable and grand moves. So I don’t think health care incrementalism is in Matthews’ play book.
Donna Brazile, TV political commentator and Chair of the Democratic National Committee’s Voting Rights Institute, and super-delegate, also believes that voters are in a foul mood. There “will be blood in this election”, she says. The next president will inherit a divided country and healthcare will be right in the middle of it. In addition, the deterioration of the economy will make health care reform doubly difficult. Even so, Democrats will want to get something in healthcare reform on the table quickly after the election.
Michael Murphy, Republican Political Consultant, and TV Commentator, on this point, says a McCain presidency may, contrary to popular thinking, do more for healthcare reform since if it is proposed by Democrats, the Republicans will block it. Like Nixon going to China, you need a conservative to front this kind of liberal change.
Dan Crippen, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, observes that many people think rising health care premiums are capricious acts; they go up by themselves and are unrelated to cost structure. He asks “How do we change the 30 year old question in healthcare from ‘who should pay’ to ‘what are we buying’.”
